Placide Konan has been using his slam poetry shows to speak out against Ivory Coast President Alassane Ouattara’s bid for a fourth term in Saturday’s election.

The 33-year-old in the capital, Abidjan, told The Associated Press he is frustrated by hardship in the country. Despite being one of West Africa’s economic powerhouses and the world’s largest cocoa producer, it has growing inequality and a poverty rate of 37.5%. More than three-quarters of the population is under 35.

“People can no longer make ends meet, Konan said. “You have to be very lucky, or a bit of a magician, to be able to live comfortably,” he said of the vibrant port capital, which still basks in its role as host of the 2024 Africa Cup of Nations.

Analysts say the 83-year-old Ouattara is likely to win and extend his rule that began in 2011. Key opposition leaders have been disqualified, including former Credit Suisse chief executive Tidjane Thiam. A local court ruled that Thiam had French nationality, which Ivorian law does not allow for presidential candidates. He rejected the decision as foul play and gave up his French nationality in March.

Instead, Ouattara will face a weakened challenge from four candidates including Jean-Louis Billon, a former commerce minister, and Simone Gbagbo, a former first lady.

The election is the latest in a pattern of African long-term presidents on a collision course with mostly young citizens.

Concerns about possible violence

About 8.7 million people are registered to vote in the election amid fears of the violence that has been common around past ones.

The ban on key opposition leaders has prompted protests that authorities have tried to block. Hundreds of protesters have been arrested, with some sentenced to prison. The government has restricted public gatherings and deployed more than 40,000 security personnel. At least three people have been killed.

Critics say the government has exploited legal provisions to weaken the opposition, and they allege unfairness in the final list of candidates. The president has denied targeting the opposition.

The recent events “undermine stability at a time when (Ivory Coast), like other countries in West Africa, faces big challenges,” said Paul Melly, a consulting fellow with the Africa program at Chatham House.

Ouattara came to power following a political crisis in 2010 and 2011 after Laurent Gbagbo refused to concede defeat. About 3,000 people were killed in the unrest.

Ouattara’s pitch

Ignoring calls to step down and brushing aside concerns over his age, Ouattara has said he seeks a fourth term due to the country’s “unprecedented security, economic and monetary” challenges.

In a pitch to young people, Ouattara told a rally last week: “I have always been committed to offering the best to our youth so that you can start businesses, work, learn and be independent.”

He won a disputed third term in 2020 after he claimed that a 2016 constitutional change reset his years in office to zero. Nearly 100 people died after Ouattara’s victory, according to rights groups.

“Ouattara has almost exclusive control over the state apparatus,” said Séverin Yao Kouamé, a research professor at the country’s University of Bouaké. “He has been able to build power relationships with all those who opposed him, from which he emerged victorious.”

Trouble in the north

Ouattara’s supporters point to a relatively strong economy, a flurry of infrastructure development across the country and investments in the public sector on the back of increasing government earnings and foreign investment.

The country saw 6% economic growth in 2024, according to the World Bank.

“If you left Côte d’Ivoire to live abroad for a few years and came back today, you would not recognize your neighborhood,” said Assita Karamoko, a hairdresser in Abidjan who supports Ouattara, referring to the country by its French name.

A commuter train line in Abidjan is being expanded. In rural areas, more roads have been paved. What was once considered an Abidjan-centric economy is expanding.

“But it is still very hard to translate all of these into enough more jobs for young people. In terms of youth employment and business opportunity, there is still a long way to go,” Melly with Chatham House said.

Security is another challenge. Bordered to the north by conflict-hit Mali and Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast is under pressure to stop a push by armed groups into coastal West Africa. The two junta-led countries have severed ties with the regional bloc, leading to a breakdown in security cooperation.

Analysts regard the Ivorian military as one of the region’s most sophisticated, but as neighbors lose more ground to armed groups, Ivory Coast will have more to deal with.

“The security conditions are fragile and exposed in the north of the country,” Melly said. “That is not the fault of the Ivorian government, (but) that is the reality of the regional situation.”

Ivory Coast Gen Zers run low on patience as 83-year-old president runs for fourth term